We use the following methods of analysis in formulating our investment portfolios and managing client assets:
We attempt to measure the intrinsic value of a security by looking at economic and financial factors (including the overall economy, industry conditions, and the financial condition and management of the company itself) to determine if the company is underpriced (indicating it may be a good time to buy) or overpriced (indicating it may be time to sell). Fundamental analysis does not attempt to anticipate market movements. This presents a potential risk, as the price of a security can move up or down along with the overall market regardless of the economic and financial factors considered in evaluating the stock.
We analyze past market movements and apply that analysis to the present in an attempt to recognize recurring patterns of investor behavior and potentially predict future price movement. Technical analysis does not consider the underlying financial condition of a company. This presents a risk in that a poorly-managed or financially unsound company may under-perform regardless of market movement.
We use mathematical models in an attempt to obtain more accurate measurements of a company’s quantifiable data, such as the value of a share price or earnings per share, and predict changes to that data.
A risk in using quantitative analysis is that the models used may be based on assumptions that prove to be incorrect.
We subjectively evaluate non-quantifiable factors such as quality of management, labor relations, and strength of research and development factors not readily subject to measurement, and predict changes to share price based on that data.
A risk in using qualitative analysis is that our subjective judgment may prove incorrect.